Severe aviation issues at the end of April
Severe aviation issues expected by late April
Forecast: «Outlines of the Global Future» (Published February 9, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
By the way, very severe aviation issues... will be observed as early as late April 2026.
In a confirmation dated April 24, 2026, «Unforeseen Turns in Aviation Communication» acknowledges the realization of S. Dragan's words that «the beginning of this year's spring... brought the most unforeseen twists regarding aviation communication issues...»
However, in the development of the aforementioned forecast, we note that «unforeseen twists» are exacerbated by «severe aviation issues observed by late April 2026». This is acknowledged by many business people and aviation experts.
The CEO of Hungarian low-cost airline Wizz Air stated, "European airlines could go bankrupt en masse by September if jet fuel prices do not drop," noting that aviation fuel costs have more than doubled since the escalation in the Middle East, rising from $831 to $1838 per ton, and these prices could persist for another year and a half, regardless of restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
All this could bankrupt several European airlines, including national ones like British Airways and Air France, and in any case, they will start massively reducing flight schedules, the Wizz Air CEO added.
At the end of April 2026, major international airlines decided to extend the suspension of flights to the Middle East. Restrictions, implemented due to closed air corridors and high security risks, will remain in place until at least the end of 2026. According to industry media, citing aviation analytics, a significant portion of the regional route network remains inaccessible for commercial flights. IBA estimated that since the introduction of severe restrictions at the end of February 2026, air connectivity in the region has decreased by almost 60%.
Industry experts emphasize that the situation has evolved into a long-term challenge for global logistics, as initial expectations of a short-term disruption were not met. This is happening amid the blockage of key routes passing over the airspaces of Iran, Iraq, Israel, and the Gulf States. To travel from Europe to Asia, carriers have to deviate from their usual routes and take much longer alternatives through Central Asia, the Caucasus, or Africa.
Airline representatives in official announcements explained that the current situation forces them to revise schedules several months in advance, as flight safety remains the top priority, and the situation in the skies over the region continues to be characterized by extreme instability. Analysts note that carriers have switched to a "flexible planning" strategy, where schedules can be adjusted literally a few hours before departure, depending on operational instructions from air traffic control services.
The affected group most severely is Lufthansa: the company has extended the pause in most flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran, Riyadh, and other cities in the region until the end of October 2026. Similar cautious policies are being followed by national carriers in France and the Netherlands, as well as Singapore Airlines, which has announced the suspension of routes to Dubai for at least the end of May. In turn, airlines based in the Persian Gulf countries are trying to adapt to conditions by rerouting passenger flows through alternative hubs, for example, through Dammam in Saudi Arabia.
In addition to logistical challenges, the industry has faced a sharp increase in operational costs. Extended flight times due to mandatory detours, combined with high fuel prices, make many routes unprofitable. As a result, airlines are reducing flight frequencies or completely removing routes from their schedules. Passengers are already experiencing the consequences in the form of ticket shortages and more complex connecting routes.
Experts advise travelers planning trips in this direction to be as flexible as possible. Major carriers, including United Airlines and Air India, have expanded their loyalty programs and ticket change policies, allowing passengers to change departure dates without penalties. However, specialists recommend keeping an eye on airline updates on social media and official websites, as current schedules may be adjusted at any moment due to unforeseen circumstances.
Experts as of April 30, 2026 note that the 2026 fuel crisis has officially entered the phase of 'aviation cannibalism': due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the surge in jet fuel prices, global giants are massively "cutting" their live schedules for May and June, the era of 'red boards' has arrived.
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