China's Economy Under Pressure from the Ormuz Blockade (April 2026)
Forecast: "Iran - interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum for the near future" (published on March 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
Regarding military actions against Iran, it should be said that by approximately 04.14.26... by the way, parallel to these events, China will be losing political and economic control.
Whether or not, but these foreign policy catastrophes will not pass without leaving a mark on this country. It seems that certain economic partnerships will be limited, and basic economic matters will become more unstable for China.
The US decision, taken "approximately by April 14, 2026," to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to foreign press, could cost many countries dearly.
"By the way, parallel to these events, China will be losing political and economic control. Whether or not, but these foreign policy catastrophes will not pass without leaving a mark on this country."
This is supported by the fact that one of the goals of the blockade, obviously, is to put pressure on China - the main consumer of Iranian crude oil.
CNN predicts - a prolonged blockade will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. China, which is the largest importer of energy carriers, has fared better than other Asian countries during the first month of the global energy crisis. But with the fragile truce between the US and Iran and the American military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy exports, the stakes for China are rising.
While the blockade is unlikely to lead to an immediate shortage, as China is well prepared for an energy crisis, risks for the country are growing: the financial regulator has repeatedly attempted to mitigate the effects of global price rises for gasoline and diesel on the national economy.
According to official economic data released last week, in March, the cost of transportation fuel rose by 10% compared to the previous month. Prices for Chinese factory goods also showed positive momentum for the first time in over three years last month. These changes will put an end to a long deflationary cycle that has caused much trouble for economists.
As some experts note, China may be interested in the US being involved in affairs of another region instead of competing with Beijing, but does not want to complicate relations between the countries ahead of Trump's visit to China next month.
China is well aware that the longer the war in the Persian Gulf slows global economic growth, the greater the impact on the Chinese economy, which relies on exports as domestic demand declines.
In its diplomatic rhetoric, China balances supporting Iran and respecting the security of countries in the Persian Gulf that are also targeted by Tehran, and which are also trading partners of Beijing.
The fact that "basic economic things will become shakier for China" is a testament to the political-economic game played by D. Trump, which many perceive as "wobbling." On this "wobble," D. Trump and his entourage, using insider information, "make crazy money out of thin air."
Just three days (April 15 of this year) after statements about blocking the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump announced its unblocking. All this "wobbles the market."
But according to D. Trump, he did this "for China and the world," for which Chinese President Xi Jinping will "give him a tight hug" at a meeting in Beijing.
"China is very happy that I am opening the Strait of Hormuz forever. I am doing this for them as much as for the whole world. The current situation will never happen again," Trump wrote.
In the same post, he noted that China "agreed not to supply weapons to Iran."
However, on the same day, information emerged that at least two tankers - Chinese and Iranian - broke through the US-imposed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. US intelligence agencies discovered that China is providing Iran with intelligence, portable anti-aircraft missile systems, chemicals, and weapon production components. Meanwhile, Britain plans to supply Ukraine with 120,000 drones.
On April 15, the US blockade was broken, Trump suffered a media and political defeat.
But this only testifies to the increase in uncertainty about the further development of the situation, which may become even more serious in the near future.
In response to Washington's actions in Tehran, they stated that if the "illegal maritime blockade" continues, they will restrict ship traffic not only near their coasts but also in the Red Sea. They have the missiles and proxy forces to do so. The Houthis have already expressed their willingness to join the anti-Israeli and anti-American struggle.
This all confirms S. Dragan's forecast:
It seems very likely that certain partnership economic relations (China with the countries of the Persian Gulf) will be restricted, and basic economic matters (China's access to a significant portion of energy resources from this conflict zone) will become more tenuous for China.
(More on this topic to follow)
