Continuation of Nawrocki’s political course in question
Forecast: “Events in Poland. Karol Nawrocki” (published October 30, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
…By early November 2026, Nawrocki’s fate may be in question, or rather, the continuation of his political course…
The “political storm” surrounding Karol Nawrocki is not a random phenomenon. Polish society has been divided for a good fifteen years.
Voters alternately favor two political forces in elections: the center-right Civic Platform, now represented by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and the conservative Law and Justice party of former Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński. Karol Nawrocki is a supporter of this party. Many other parties operate in Poland, but a de facto two-party system has emerged.
The Third Polish Republic is a parliamentary republic: all levers of power are in the hands of the prime minister and the government he forms, supported by a majority in the Sejm. However, the incumbent president, Karol Nawrocki, elected with the support of Law and Justice, does not wish to be a passive observer of Donald Tusk’s course and, more often than previous presidents, uses his veto power in an effort to obstruct government initiatives. The events of the last day of October showed that the government and the president are capable of clashing in a battle that has gone beyond the bounds of the legal framework.
The crisis surrounding Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal, which has dragged on since 2015, intensified in early 2026.
In the spring of 2026, the current composition of the Sejm elected five new Tribunal judges. However, Karol Nawrocki, like his predecessor Andrzej Duda, has still not accepted their oath of office, although he has repeatedly been asked to do so. Having never received a date for the oath ceremony from the president, the judges were sworn in at the office of the Sejm speaker in the president’s absence, and the relevant documents were sent to him. However, neither the president nor the Tribunal’s chairman, Bogdan Święczkowski, recognized these judges’ authority. The latter did not even allow them into their workplaces.
Another interesting event occurred in September: in addition to the five “spring” Tribunal judges, a sixth was elected—Maciej Berek, Donald Tusk’s closest associate and trusted lawyer. What would seem to be the issue? One more or one fewer—it makes no difference anyway, since the president and the Tribunal chairman do not recognize their authority.
It is a matter of arithmetic: if the six new judges had begun performing their duties, a Civic Platform majority would have been established in the Tribunal, which could have changed the balance of power in the body overseeing compliance with the constitution and initiated a change in its leadership.
The Tribunal majority apparently decided not to delay implementing this plan, and on the evening of October 30, 2026, a statement appeared on the Constitutional Tribunal’s website on behalf of one of the judges whose authority was not recognized, Anna Korwin-Petrowska, who, along with her five colleagues, had not taken the oath in Nawrocki’s presence. It stated that Tribunal chairman Bogdan Święczkowski and his deputy, Bartłomiej Sochański, had been suspended from their positions for one month.
Tribunal chairman Święczkowski has also been nominated for the lifting of his immunity, which must be approved by the Sejm, as the prosecutor’s office has claims against him concerning his period of service as Poland’s National Prosecutor—the first deputy prosecutor general.
Incidentally, the prosecutor’s office in Poland, like the police, is subordinate to the prime minister, while the prosecutor general simultaneously serves as justice minister, so there is nothing surprising about the fact that they suddenly “remembered” Święczkowski’s previous activities. Incidentally, Korwin-Petrowska suspended him from his duties as chairman of the Constitutional Tribunal pending the completion of the prosecutorial proceedings.
At the same time, the official Constitutional Court page on social network X reported an allegedly illegal takeover of the institution’s website. It stressed that Święczkowski remained the court’s chairman and that Korwin-Petrowska had no such authority.
Protesters surrounded the court building on Friday, October 30, 2026; there were isolated attempts to break through the barriers. Korwin-Petrowska said the judges’ lives were under threat, and police made arrests.
The Tribunal chairman and the opposition called what was happening “an attempted coup.” On the evening of October 30, 2026, thousands of protesters gathered outside the Constitutional Tribunal building together with opposition leaders.
Polish President Karol Nawrocki cut short his foreign trip and returned to Warsaw. Opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński called what was happening another stage of a progressing coup d’état. On Saturday morning, after spending several hours in the Constitutional Court building, Nawrocki said he was convening an emergency meeting involving all political forces to resolve the situation.
On October 31, 2026, Donald Tusk, with the support of Brussels-based Jewish globalists, addressed the people of Poland in connection with these events.
The European Commission supported the Polish parliament’s right to appoint new judges, effectively siding with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in his escalating dispute with President Karol Nawrocki over the Constitutional Court, Politico reports.
“The appointment of new judges falls within the powers of the Sejm, the lower house of Poland’s parliament,” European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice and the Rule of Law Michael McGrath told the publication.
He added that the European Commission does not intend to compromise on the powers of the Polish parliament.
On November 3, 2026, a meeting of Poland’s National Security Council was held, chaired by President Karol Nawrocki. Opening the meeting, he stated that the full burden of responsibility for the crisis surrounding Poland’s Constitutional Court lay with the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk.
In response to the president’s actions, the forces behind the prime minister became more active.
The day before, on November 2, 2026, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused President Karol Nawrocki of “violent confrontation” in the dispute over the Constitutional Court.
“Resolving the conflict is simple and possible without amending the constitution. The president recognizes the judges lawfully elected by the Sejm, as provided for by the constitution, and they begin carrying out their duties in the Constitutional Tribunal,” he wrote on his page on social network X.
At the same time, the prosecutor’s office opened a criminal case into an attack by Polish President Karol Nawrocki on acting Constitutional Court chairwoman Anna Korwin-Petrowska, the republic’s prosecutor general, Waldemar Żurek, told reporters.
“A prosecutor from the National Prosecutor’s Office today launched an investigation into the active assault on Constitutional Tribunal judges Anna Korwin-Petrowska and Krystian Markiewicz, as well as attempts to forcibly compel certain actions in the Constitutional Court,” Żurek said.
Judge Anna Korwin-Petrowska, who had previously declared herself acting head of the court, convened a general meeting of Constitutional Court judges on November 3, 2026. The agenda included consideration of the institution’s projected income and expenditures for 2027.
Suspended chairman Bogdan Święczkowski stated on the Kanal Zero YouTube channel that a coup d’état had taken place in the country. He also expressed confidence that the meeting would fail to gather the required quorum: by his calculation, for the session to be valid, two-thirds of the 15 judges—at least 10 people—needed to be present.
However, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, the acting court chairwoman appointed by the government, struck three suspended judges from the old composition off the lists, so the quorum threshold automatically dropped to eight people. As a result, the meeting was deemed lawful, the judges approved the body’s internal budget for 2027 and initiated proceedings against the former leadership. Tusk’s government effectively took control of the Constitutional Tribunal.
The Constitutional Tribunal finally came under the control of supporters of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The meeting of November 3, 2026, consolidated the court’s new leadership and the government’s victory.
At the same time, the Supreme Court, where supporters of the right-wing opposition and President Karol Nawrocki predominate, deemed this decision illegitimate.
The courts cannot influence one another. In Poland, the Constitutional Tribunal and the Supreme Court are independent bodies with different functions. The Tribunal reviews laws, while the Supreme Court handles ordinary criminal and civil cases. Thus, judicial dual power has emerged in the country.
On the same day, the president and prime minister met at a session of the National Security Council. Nawrocki publicly criticized Tusk, but the head of state has no real leverage to overturn decisions concerning the Constitutional Tribunal.
Thus, as of November 4, 2026, the conflict surrounding the court had entered a new phase: the confrontation between political forces had reached its peak, while the key issue—the legitimacy of the court’s leadership—remained the main source of tension.
Based on this: “…in early November 2026, Nawrocki’s fate may be in question, or rather, the continuation of his political course…”
S. Dragan forecasts further developments in Poland:
Revolutionary events may continue with renewed force around November 24, 2026. And by the end of November 2026, events become fateful for Poland. Retaining the former government becomes very difficult…
…And by December 2026, or rather by the third ten-day period of December 2026, closer to December 22–24, 2026, the situation for him may become completely critical…
To be continued…
