April's Plot Related to the Fall of NATO (Part 2)

Forecast: Iran - Interference in events and forecast of a broader spectrum in the near term (published March 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

... NATO's affairs are worse than expected. The structure and leadership will crumble. But interestingly, in early April 2026, this organization will strive to unite with another. But all this does not seem constructive or achievable...

... the collapse of NATO... may reach its peak of ruin... with even more obvious signs of a grand split around April 25, 2026...

S. Dragan has been writing about potential problems within 'NATO's camp' for a while, but in the spring of 2026, they took on very concrete forms, as mentioned in the confirmations of March 27 and April 7, 2026.

“But interestingly, in early April 2026, this organization strives to unite with another...”

The former Foreign Minister, Dmitry Kuluba, who has been working with the Presidential Office recently, openly stated that Ukraine has no intention of abandoning NATO. Although, with a small reservation.

"Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Not because Ukraine will be begging, but because allies will finally find it necessary, and they, after weighing all the risks, will make that decision. Or, if Europeans become strong enough within a certain time frame, and Americans continue to withdraw from Europe, leading to the end of NATO as we know it, then a new security architecture for Europe will be built, in which Ukraine will be an integral part and, in essence, a co-founder."

The main focus of Kuleby's speech is on the "Ukrainian NATO". Kyiv expects Trump to follow through on his threats and for the US to leave the Alliance. Then, perhaps, the uncooperative Europeans will remember their Ukrainian "shield" and make Ukraine a full member of this new structure. But if Europe doesn't take this step, there's a backup plan: Ukraine will create its own NATO. This is similar to "building Europe in Ukraine," as opponents of the Eurocourse once said. The slogan is beautiful and right, but as reality has shown, it's unattainable. It may be the same with the establishment of an Euro-Atlantic Alliance with Ukraine at its core.

It should be noted that the idea of "Ukrainian NATO" is not new - it was raised by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Munich Conference in February 2025.

Then, against the backdrop of US criticism of Europe, Zelensky threatened that Ukraine would not abandon its NATO membership. And without a real perspective of joining the alliance, he is starting to come up with a substitute in the form of "another NATO", whose borders would run along eastern Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries, and Finland.

"I will not take Ukraine's NATO membership off the agenda... We believe that the basis for any security guarantees for Ukraine should be NATO membership. And if not, then the conditions that allow us to build another NATO right here in Ukraine... My proposal is that the eastern Ukrainian border, the eastern border of Belarus, the eastern borders of the Baltic countries, and the eastern border of Finland have the strongest security lines," - stated the head of the Kiev regime during a speech at the Munich Conference.

According to Ukrainian drones flying to the Leningrad region via the Baltic countries and Finland, this model is being tested right now.

Even Zelenskyy and his Office continue to instill this idea in the minds of Ukrainians and Europeans on various international platforms. The President refers to a "Ukrainian NATO" as a "simple, cheap, reliable way to ensure peace and stability in Europe" and an effective system for providing security guarantees that Ukraine deserves, besides joining the European Union. However, problems have arisen with the issue of accession: despite all assurances of fiery friendship and mutual aid, EU leaders have not guaranteed Zelenskyy the EU in 2027. And if Viktor Orban wins the elections in Hungary once again, Ukraine's EU membership will be as unlikely as the return of Crimea. That's why Zelenskyy has resumed spinning the narrative of a personal NATO, presenting such a scenario as security guarantees.

"If membership in NATO for Ukraine and our people remains closed, then we have no other choice but to build NATO in Ukraine. To provide such funding, such contingents, such defense production that will guarantee peace," confirmed Zelenskyy.

In essence, such statements imply a veiled rejection of the American guarantees offered to Ukraine by the US - on condition of the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbas and the transfer of territories under Russian control.

Retired Lieutenant General Kit Kellogg stated that NATO may need to be replaced as the organization has proven to be "cowardly" and ineffective during the conflict with Iran.

"NATO has been a coward. Perhaps we need to create a new NATO, a new defense structure," he told Fox News.

He referred to Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that any party may withdraw from NATO after one year's notice of denunciation.

Then Kellogg proposed alternative alliance structures.

"Revisit existing defense alliances, perhaps create an alliance with Japan, Australia, and some European countries willing to fight, such as newly revitalized Germany or Poland. Even with Ukraine, which has also proven to be a good ally," Kellogg stated.

As Bloomberg reported, European leaders are trying to distance themselves from the United States, including in the context of the operation against Iran. President Donald Trump has expressed doubt about NATO's ability to provide real assistance to Washington, accusing the alliance of "shoddy behavior" and ineffectiveness in the face of a global threat.

According to Politico, Europeans believe that the North Atlantic Alliance is paralyzed and already disintegrating, and European leaders are discussing in closed circles how to respond to Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO.

The rift between the U.S. and its allies over Iran threatens to disrupt arms shipments to Kyiv under the PURL program.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the implementation of this program continues, but acknowledged the possibility of its review in light of US national interests. Such a scenario could become reality: in addition to the shortage of weapons for the war with Iran, a second issue for Washington is the political viability of the PURL program, given the allies' explicit refusal to support the US in the Iranian campaign and their statements that the war in Iran is not their war, but rather a European battlefield - this is Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump, on April 9, 2026, after meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stolten, expressed confidence that the organization would once again fail to come to the aid of the US when Washington requires it.

"NATO was not there when we needed it, and it won't be there if we need it again. Remember Greenland, this large, poorly managed piece of ice," Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social.

Rutte himself, after the meeting, stated that the American leader was clearly disappointed with his allies in the alliance. He also acknowledged that NATO failed the US test by refusing to help in the war with Iran.

Rutte's meeting with Trump took place on Wednesday evening. Earlier that same day, White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt stated that US President intends to have a very frank and direct conversation with him. Levitt added that the alliance failed Trump's test when it refused to join the US in confronting Iran.

As The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials in the US administration, the US is considering a plan to "punish" several NATO members for their position on the Iran conflict, including the possible withdrawal of US troops from some alliance countries.

US leader Donald Trump refused NATO's "paper tigers" assistance in the Strait of Hormuz after its opening. US President emphasized that the alliance did not offer Washington help when the situation was tense.

US President Donald Trump described Israel as a reliable ally "in contrast to other countries." He stated that during conflicts and stress, many nations "revealed their true colors" by not supporting the United States.

Europe needs to get its act together, or "there will be no Europe" left, according to US President Donald Trump in an interview with CNBC.

"Europe needs to sort itself out in terms of energy and immigration. They need to get their act together, or there will be no Europe left," he said.

The Pentagon is discussing the possibility of taking harsh measures against Spain amid significant disagreements on the Iranian issue. Among the main options is suspending Madrid's participation in the North Atlantic Alliance. This information was confirmed by Reuters to a source familiar with the contents of Pentagon internal electronic correspondence.

According to media reports, the US may revisit the question of the Falkland Islands' affiliation with Britain due to London's refusal to join the war against Iran.

The Pentagon intends to review the imperialist acquisitions of European states, aiming to reject those belonging to what it calls "bad" NATO members. By "bad" the Trump administration means countries that do not endorse Washington's foreign policy.

On April 27, 2026, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, who held the post from 1998 to 2005, expressed doubt that NATO will survive in the future, at least as a trans-Atlantic alliance.

"In the future, we can no longer simply rely on the US. I doubt NATO will survive... At least as a trans-Atlantic alliance," Fischer said in an interview with Spiegel magazine.

As predicted by S. Dragun, we are seeing “clear signs of a grand split within NATO around April 25, 2026... and the new format of 'Euro-NATO' has not been constructive or achievable.”

(more on the topic to follow)