Space sphere issues

Forecast: "Outlines of the Global Future" (published on February 9, 2026, link)

Dragan:

But this time can still bring the most unexpected twists... By the way, very serious problems with... the space sphere will be observed from the end of April 2026.

Four astronauts - Gregory Reid Wizeman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch from the USA and Jeremy Hansen from Canada - launched on April 1, 2026, on the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket, after which they orbited the Moon aboard the Orion spacecraft and landed in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California on April 11, 2026.

The mission encountered numerous difficulties during the preparation stage, leading to several delays.

Let's start from the end - the return, as it is one of the most dangerous phases of the flight: upon entering the atmosphere, the surface of the ship heats up to 2700-2800°C.

Another critically important component for any space missions - communication.

One cannot say that the Artemis-2 flight went without a hitch: several times astronauts reported difficulties with waste management, as well as technical glitches with the email client (more precisely, two versions, neither of which worked). The issues were resolved, and in the context of the entire mission, they can be considered minor. But the path to this result was long and difficult.

The fate of the SLS rocket, which is too complex and expensive to produce, is in question.

Lunar module versions are still not presented - if their development is delayed, all missions will be pushed back.

Conducting a human landing on the far side of the Moon is much more challenging for scientists than on the visible side. The first and main reason is communication. If you are on the visible side, Earth is always in the field of view. So there are no obstructions for direct radio communication.

The terrain on the far side of the Moon is significantly rougher, with fewer flat areas suitable for landing. The far side is littered with craters, increasing the risk of rockfalls. Moreover, there are no lunar seas on the far side, making the crust thicker, which complicates drilling needed to obtain scientific samples.

A third reason is psychological: landing on the far side means true isolation, as Earth will not be in direct view. This poses a significant psychological challenge for astronauts accustomed to seeing our home planet during their time in space.

It remains to be seen what other issues engineers will uncover during training orbital flights. In general, there are many unresolved problems. And as these are addressed, Russia and China, both striving to fulfill their lunar ambitions, could very well catch up.

At the Russian Space Forum, held during the celebration of the 65th anniversary of the first human space flight (April 12, 2026), it was recognized that the danger of an abundance of satellites in orbit is real.

The risk of a catastrophic situation in low Earth orbit is growing, stated participants of the first Russian Space Forum, held on April 9 in Moscow as part of Space Week. There are more and more objects in orbit around Earth, but essentially, there are no 'rules of the road'. In the worst-case scenario, humanity could be pushed back to a pre-space age: everything already launched would become trillions of debris, and most importantly, we would not be able to launch anything new into orbit, as space junk traveling at high speeds would immediately destroy everything.

The task of controlling low Earth space has become very complex, said Vitaly Goruykin, the main designer of the space control system at the Korporatsiya Vympel corporation, at the forum. The number of objects is increasing, as is space debris, including small fragments that we cannot observe. If today there are around 15,000 satellites in low orbits, within 10 years their number could increase by ten times.

"The risk of a catastrophic situation is growing. If Starlink loses control, it will lead to a catastrophic breakdown within 36 hours, generating a massive amount of debris," added Goruchkin.

"Of course, Elon Musk's fleet has been under the spotlight. As of April, it consists of approximately 11,500 satellites, out of which around 1,500 are already non-operational junk,"

Thus, the majority of the mentioned 15,000 objects are his. Adding to the fire are the relentless American's plans: he has already applied for 30,000 satellites, and in public statements, he talks about a million. In essence, we are looking at a "Sky named after Elon Musk".

The risk of unexpected malfunctions within the fleet is significant. First, Musk's satellites constantly break down and even "explode" for unknown reasons, noted Viktor Strelet, chairman of the Research Commission on Satellite Services of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Second, no one has canceled the factor of solar activity, added Vitaly Goruchkin: "Due to solar flares, the atmosphere expands as if 'blowing up,' stronger brakes on devices, making them unpredictable."

The situation is exacerbated by "overcrowding" of the radio spectrum: frequencies are exhausted, satellites exchange data with Earth often, essentially on the same frequency, and who can guarantee that a command sent from Earth will not be distorted. In such a case, the satellite will perform an unexpected maneuver, and it's too late.

Participants in the "Orbital Overcrowding" session did not even touch upon technologies for "catching" and disposing of space debris. Apparently, it's still science fiction, there's nothing to discuss.

Instead, they talked about the urgent issue: can we currently control satellite flights to prevent collisions?

Groups are monitored by operators who represent the interests of their own group. Today, there are 17 such operators. Monitoring satellites in low orbits is difficult, noted Vitaly Goryuchkin, as there is often a lack of (radar) equipment.

But worse, data collected by the operator is often kept by the operator himself. He "protects" his group from problems. But not the overall Earth environment.

There is a need at the UN level to adopt a "law" that obliges operators to provide full information about their "affiliates" and to require them to notify in advance about maneuvers, believes Vitaly Goryuchkin.These operators do provide such data, noted Artem Ikoyev, Deputy General Director for Technologies at "IX Holding", and if they don't, it's not a problem to force them to. However, the issue of trust in these data arises. The figures currently provided by group operators are, in principle, quite accurate, but not accurate enough to form the basis of a global security system.How likely is it that the UN or some other international body will adopt a "law"? It's quite likely. But how likely is it that the "law" will be enforced? Well, that's where doubts arise. Currently, everything depends on the good will of group owners, Artem Ikoyev emphasizes, and it's likely to remain so. Space, in essence, has never been regulated, he notes, with the exception of half-century-old conventions "for the good against the bad", which then and now remained framework agreements. So it's unlikely that all market participants will immediately embrace this.

Good will exists, and for example, Elon Musk promised to present an exact catalog with all parameters of his group by the fall, updated every 15 minutes.

- This will be a revolution, - said Maxim Penkov, Deputy General Director for Applied Research and Projects in the Field of Ensuring the Safety of Activities in the Near-Earth Space of the Central Scientific Research Institute of Machinery.

Artificial intelligence (AI) won't be able to handle the situation, believes Penkov: on the one hand, it will soon be indispensable, as there won't be enough live operators to divert satellites from collisions. On the other, there are doubts that AI solutions will be flawless, as AI only works well if it is well-trained. AI is not ready for the task yet, believes Maxim Penkov.

The session participants did not particularly emphasize catastrophism, but the room was filled with professionals who know: some study results suggest that we could be pushed back to the pre-space age. Imagine satellites uncontrollably colliding with each other. Orbits became debris fields. Trying to launch anything (even for cleanup), we would crash a rocket into these debris. There are more optimistic studies. But the risks are great, and solutions are not yet in sight.

The Secure World Foundation has released a guide for investors, warning: without strict satellite resilience standards, mega-constellations could make orbits dangerous and too expensive for business.

(to be continued)