Major economic restructuring worldwide

Forecast: "Iran - Interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum for the near future" (published on March 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

In general, after the 20th of April 2026, a lot will start changing in the world. Previous trends may alter their course. In fact, serious economic restructuring will begin worldwide by the end of March 2026. But it appears as some kind of energy dead end, forcing a review of the entire global economy's structure. Of course, all countries will react to this.

This may not happen simultaneously, but the process has reached a point where it's impossible to continue in this direction. These are signs of a crisis. Previous interaction structures will be dismantled, although this will mostly happen in the form of a pause.

Few in early March 2026 anticipated that the US would become entangled in a long-term conflict and fail, as they did in June of last year, to declare victory and thus prevent further escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The American leadership was likely swept away by the lightning-fast success in Venezuela. But Iran is not Latin America.

“After the 20th of April 2026, a lot will change in the world. And previous trends may alter their course.

On April 21, 2026, considering the course of confrontation in the Persian Gulf region, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, drew attention to problems with energy supply.

The escalation of the situation in the Middle East could lead to a fundamental restructuring of the global energy system, said the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol.

“This situation could lead to a complete redrawing of the global energy map,” said the IEA chief, commenting on the Middle East situation, as quoted by the newspaper Dünya.

Biröl emphasized that it is not just about temporary instability, but a structural shift in global energy.

He noted that even with rapid lifting of restrictions, including the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, a return to the former supply system will take a long time.

"Even if the strait opens tomorrow, returning to the previous state will require significant investments and time - not less than two years," the IEA chief pointed out.

Biröl also warned of risks to global markets, including possible supply disruptions and price hikes, especially in Europe, where changes in logistics chains are already being recorded.

“And previous trends have changed course. In fact, a serious economic restructuring has already begun worldwide at the very end of March 2026.”

In the face of oil and gas shortages from the Persian Gulf region, the United States has approved new operations involving Russian oil already loaded onto tankers. A similar permit, issued earlier in March, concerned exports to India; now, there are no geographical restrictions, only a time limit - operations are permitted until April 11th. By that date, an estimated 19 million barrels of oil and over 300,000 tons of petroleum products have been sold under the license. The Philippines and Thailand have shown interest in Russian batches.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued a license allowing the acquisition of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto tankers by March 12th, to be purchased by April 11th. As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted, the permission is aimed at expanding the geography of deliveries for the shipped batches.

The purpose of the issued license may be to create the illusion of large unused reserves to suppress oil prices, says Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University. According to him, the raw materials were accumulated in January-February due to low quotes, but after the blockage of the Hormuz Strait, these reserves began to be actively purchased, and the volumes decreased from 140 million to 19 million barrels. Nevertheless, the license creates a positive precedent, showing that sanctions can be lifted.

On April 18, TASS reported on the extension of the sanctions relief for Russian oil.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Saturday the renewal of the license for the sale of Russian oil, extending American sanctions relief to raw materials loaded on ships before April 17, the document was valid until May 16. Subsequently, it was extended for another month - until mid-June 2026.

"Extending the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, without a doubt, will cause extreme concern, hysteria, and war cries from the warmongers in the EU and Britain," wrote the head of the Russian Wealth Fund, K. Dmitriev, in his Telegram channel.

He added that many countries, including the United States, are increasingly recognizing the role of Russian oil and gas in maintaining global economic stability. The head of the Russian Wealth Fund believes that sanctions against Russia are "ineffective and destructive."

"But it (economic restructuring) appears as some kind of energy dead end, which forces a re-evaluation of the entire structure of the global economy. Of course, all countries will react to this. It may not be simultaneous, but the process has taken such a turn that it is impossible to continue in this direction."

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st, a decision considered one of the most significant blows to the oil cartel in recent years. A major producer is now exempt from quota compliance and intends to increase production. Despite this, oil prices are not falling but are holding steady around $110-120 per barrel amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE was the third-largest producer in OPEC with a daily output of 3.4 million barrels (prior to the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran). The country still has the potential to ramp up production to 5 million barrels per day next year. Therefore, the UAE's exit from the cartel is not an emotional protest but a rational move by a producer seeking to monetize its infrastructure investments before the oil market enters a period of reduced demand.

In doing so, OPEC lost one of the few members capable of rapidly increasing production, making the organization weaker. But to say OPEC has collapsed is too premature. Rather, the cartel has lost discipline within the club, especially as several of its members - Iran, Libya, and Venezuela - have been exempted from quotas due to sanctions or internal conflicts. And discipline is, in essence, the only thing underpinning the organization's influence on the market.

As a result, the market stops relying on agreements and returns to a state of volatility where price is determined not by coordination but by competition.

Analysts view the UAE's exit from OPEC as a victory for US President Donald Trump, who criticizes the organization for influencing prices through production restraint. However, the American position has historically been ambivalent. On one hand, the US is the largest consumer, interested in low prices. On the other hand, it is also the largest producer, and too cheap oil hurts their own industry.

Washington's goal is not cheap energy resources, but managed oil without a strong cartel. Because OPEC creates a coordination center outside of US control, and the fewer major producers it has, the weaker its collective bargaining power and the more individual players emerge.

But if a strong OPEC smooths the market, a weak one makes it more nervous. The main long-term consequence is not an immediate price drop, but increased volatility, when the price moves not smoothly, but in jumps: it rises due to Hormuz, falls due to increased production, again rises due to sanctions or attacks on infrastructure. Even under such conditions, in a fragmented market, the United States retains significant leverage. The role of the United States as a financial center is strengthened, as oil remains a dollar-denominated commodity, despite the growth of alternative settlements. For now, a significant part of trade, hedging and lending is tied to the Western financial infrastructure.

Against this backdrop, the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) exit from OPEC and OPEC+ intensifies the main risk - instability. When the market becomes less predictable, companies start acting more cautiously, building liquidity and reviewing dividend decisions. This means that even with high oil prices, investors may not see comparable growth in payments. Key factors in decision-making here are companies' cash flow resilience, managed debt, dividend policy, and reliance on specific export routes.

«... after the 20th of April 2026 ... these are signs of a crisis. Previous interaction structures will be destroyed, though more in the form of a pause.

As of April 21, 2026, the aggressive fervor of the US and Israel in the Middle East has waned. They were unprepared for a land battle. And without a large-scale ground operation, the regime of the IRGC and ayatollahs in Iran cannot be overthrown. Moreover, the "paper tigers," as US President Donald Trump called them, from the European part of NATO did not join his anti-Iranian operation.

And most importantly, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. At its peak, Hormuz transported 20% of the world's consumed crude oil and petroleum products. The same amount of LNG, a third of nitrogen fertilizers. A fifth of aluminum, sulfur, and even inert gas helium.

The negative consequences of war against Iran can be listed endlessly. For example, the UAE, whose territory, as is known, hosts a US air base and which concluded, under pressure from Trump, the so-called Abraham Agreement with Israel, after Iranian drone and rocket attacks, may forget for a long time about its goal to displace Switzerland from the pinnacle of global financial operations.

Regarding other countries in the Persian Gulf, they are still saturated with oil and forced to cut production due to damage to refineries and energy infrastructure. According to the latest calculations by The Finance Times, oil production in Saudi Arabia had decreased by 23% by mid-April, in the UAE by 45%, in Iraq by 61%, and in all OPEC countries by 27%.

As a result, according to various estimates by analytical agencies and traders, the global market is currently losing around 13 million barrels of crude oil per day, which is about 12% of the global market.

Almost all experts and many politicians from different countries have warned that if the conflict continues for another 2-3 months, not only Asian but also European countries will face a physical shortage of petroleum products, especially jet fuel. Moreover, a severe food shortage was predicted due to high prices and the basic shortage of nitrogen fertilizers during the spring sowing already underway in the Northern Hemisphere.

However, the most dangerous challenge to the global economy posed by the war against Iran is the sharp rise in oil, petroleum products, and gas prices. For instance, in the days leading up to the conflict, May Brent crude futures on the ICE London Futures Exchange were trading between $72-73 per barrel. Interestingly, these figures already indicated the approach of U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran. Earlier this year, Brent crude was trading between $60-62 per barrel.

During this actual war, May and then June futures soared above $119 per barrel. Although prices occasionally adjusted downward due to Trump's calming verbal interventions, Brent crude prices in early April were in the range of $110 and even higher. On average, over 40 days of war, oil prices rose by 50%, and at times, they surged to a 70% increase.

The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, stated that the price rise in March was the largest in history over such a short period. Furthermore, he described today's situation in energy markets as the worst in history and warned that the latest price hike does not actually reflect the underlying situation. In particular, he noted that countries in the Persian Gulf will need at least two years to restore pre-war oil production levels. Additionally, Birol believes that during the oil crises of 1973 (Yom Kippur War) and 1979 (Islamic Revolution in Iran), fuel supply disruptions were less severe than currently.

Accordingly, gas at the Dutch TTF hub doubled in price instantaneously to $840 per 1,000 cubic meters. On average, it remained in the $600-620 range. We should also add the increase in nitrogen fertilizers by roughly a third for a complete picture.

The United States, at least geopolitically, have lost the war against Iran. This includes their failure to gain control over the oil and gas reserves in the Persian Gulf. However, they have dealt such a powerful blow to the global energy market (including their own segment) that it will take years to recover from it.